James Talarico Takes Narrow Lead Over Ken Paxton in New Texas Senate Poll

A recent poll reveals a significant shift in the Texas U.S. Senate race, with Democrat James Talarico now holding a slim lead over Republican incumbent Ken Paxton. Conducted between September 12 and 13, 2026, the survey reflects changing voter dynamics in this high-profile contest ahead of the November election.

Poll Shows Talarico Ahead in Tight Race

The latest SoCal Strategies poll surveyed 649 likely Texas voters and found Talarico leading with 50 percent support compared to Paxton’s 45 percent. This marks a notable reversal from a similar poll in June that had Paxton ahead 49 percent to 47 percent. The numbers highlight growing momentum for Talarico as the race heats up with just weeks left before election day.

Demographic Shifts Boost Talarico’s Support

Talarico’s gains come from increased backing across key demographic groups. His support among Hispanic voters surged from 10 percent in June to 38 percent in the current poll. Independent voters also swung dramatically, with Talarico rising from 10 percent to 45 percent support. Notably, 12 percent of self-identified Republicans now say they would vote for Talarico, while he commands 46 percent support among young voters aged 18 to 29.

Meanwhile, Paxton retains advantages among white voters, leading 56 to 39 percent, and holds a slight edge with older voters aged 45 to 64 (49 to 46 percent) and those over 65 (51 to 44 percent).

Republican Voters Show Signs of Uncertainty

The poll also reveals that Republicans appear less decided in the Senate race compared to Democrats. While only 1 percent of voters who backed Vice President Kamala Harris in 2026 remain undecided, about 6 percent of those who supported President Donald Trump this year have yet to make up their minds in the Senate contest. To secure re-election, Paxton will need to win nearly all of these undecided Republican voters and convince a substantial portion of the 12 percent of Republicans currently backing Talarico to switch their votes.

President Donald Trump has publicly endorsed Paxton, praising him as the “greatest attorney general in America” and criticizing Talarico on social media and at campaign events.

Historical Context and Election Outlook

Texas has been a Republican bastion in federal elections for decades, consistently voting GOP since 1980. However, changing demographics and political realignments have made recent races increasingly competitive. Despite President Trump’s 13.7-point victory margin in Texas during the 2026 presidential election, Democrats see opportunities to capitalize on shifting voter attitudes.

Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994, but Talarico’s campaign has gained traction following Paxton’s upset primary victory over longtime Senator John Cornyn in May. Polling throughout the summer and early fall has shown a tight race, with Talarico and Paxton trading leads as the election approaches.

Other Polls Confirm a Close Contest

Multiple recent surveys underscore the competitiveness of the race. A YouGov/Univision poll conducted in early September found Talarico ahead by five points, while an Overton Insights/Texas Public Policy Foundation poll in late August showed the candidates nearly tied. Emerson College and Fox News polls have similarly reported margins within the margin of error, signaling a race too close to call.

As Texans prepare to vote in November, the Senate contest between Talarico and Paxton remains one of the most closely watched and consequential races nationally. Both campaigns are intensifying efforts to mobilize supporters and sway undecided voters in a state that could shape the balance of power in the U.S. Senate.