Latino Voters Could Propel James Talarico to Texas Senate Upset

HARLINGEN, Texas – As the November 3 general election approaches, Latino voters in Texas are showing strong enthusiasm for Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico, an energy that could tip the scales in the tightly contested race against Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton. At a watch party in Harlingen on October 14, supporters gathered to cheer on Talarico’s town hall broadcast on CNN, signaling renewed hope among Hispanic voters for a Democratic statewide victory.

Latino Voters: The Deciding Factor in Texas

Maricela Alvarado, a 63-year-old Army veteran from Harlingen, expressed deep support for Talarico, calling him a “godsend” and a candidate who appeals to voters across party lines. Alvarado emphasized that Hispanic voters hold significant sway in the upcoming election, saying, “We are actually the deciding factor. We have not really tied to one party or the other.” She believes that the Latino community’s ability to swing either way based on their current feelings is critical to Talarico’s chances of winning.

Shifting Latino Political Landscape

In recent election cycles, Texas’ Hispanic voters have gradually shifted toward the Republican Party, exemplified by the GOP flipping the 15th Congressional District in the Rio Grande Valley in 2022 and President Donald Trump winning 55% of the Latino vote in Texas in 2024, a record high for a Republican presidential candidate. Yet rising costs of living have dampened Republican support, creating an opening for Democrats like Talarico and gubernatorial nominee Gina Hinojosa.

Recent polling reflects this shift: an average of the latest five polls by 270 To Win shows Talarico leading Paxton 49% to 45.5%, while Hinojosa trails Gov. Greg Abbott 46.8% to 49%. Latino voters’ concerns about the economy are driving their renewed support for Democrats.

Polls Show Strong Latino Support for Democrats

Polling data highlights the Democratic advantage among Hispanic voters. A Cook Political Report/TelevisaUnivision poll in September showed Talarico leading Paxton by 63% to 30% among Latino voters, with 73% of self-described independents backing Talarico. In comparison, outgoing Republican Senator John Cornyn won only 27% of the Hispanic vote in 2020. Similarly, Hinojosa led Abbott 60% to 33% in that poll, compared to Abbott’s 40% Hispanic vote share in 2022.

Additionally, an October poll by Equis Research found Talarico ahead 58% to 33%, and Hinojosa leading 59% to 35%. Stephanie Valencia, co-founder of Equis Research, noted that for the first time in Texas or national polling, grocery and gas prices ranked as the most important issue for Hispanic voters, followed by immigration enforcement and deportations.

Latino Voters as a Swing Bloc

Clarissa Martinez, vice president of the Latino Vote Initiative at UnidosUS, described Latino voters as emphasizing their role as a swing vote in the election, underlining their potential to decide outcomes in close races. This growing Latino enthusiasm for Democratic candidates like Talarico and Hinojosa could reshape Texas politics after decades of Republican dominance.

With the general election less than three weeks away, the Latino vote in Texas is proving to be a pivotal force, energizing campaigns and drawing national attention to what has traditionally been considered a reliably red state.