New Texas Senate Poll Shows Dead Heat as Early Voting Nears

A new poll released on Oct. 8 reveals Texas Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico are tied at 45% each as early voting for the midterm elections approaches on Oct. 19. With just 10 days remaining before early voting begins, the race for the U.S. Senate seat in Texas is showing signs of a shifting momentum in what has been a competitive contest.

Overview of the Latest Texas Senate Poll

The UMass Lowell/YouGov poll surveyed 850 likely Texas voters between Sept. 18 and 28, with a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points. According to the results, both Paxton and Talarico stand at 45%, while 7% of respondents remain undecided. This marks a tightening of the race after several polls in September and early October showed Talarico with a lead, sometimes outside the poll’s error margin.

John Cluverius, director of survey research for the Center for Public Opinion at UMass Lowell, commented on the significance of the tie: “The last time Democrats won a U.S. Senate race in Texas, Ken Paxton didn’t yet have a law degree and James Talarico wasn’t even born. With the race tied, anything can happen between now and the election.”

Demographic Support and Favorability Ratings

The poll offers insight into voter preferences across different age and racial groups. Ken Paxton leads voters over 65 years old with 58% support compared to Talarico’s 38%. Conversely, Talarico holds a strong lead among younger voters aged 18 to 29, with 49% backing him versus 37% for Paxton. Additionally, Hispanic voters favor Talarico 48% to 42%, while Black voters show overwhelming support for the Democrat at 67% compared to 17% for Paxton.

Regarding favorability, the poll measured James Talarico’s ratings, showing him at 42% favorable and 41% unfavorable. The poll did not provide favorability data for Ken Paxton.

Effects of Campaign Developments and Trump’s Visits

The recent dead heat comes amid questions about the impact of President Donald Trump’s visits to Texas and Talarico’s absence from the campaign trail for about two weeks. It remains unclear how these factors have influenced voter sentiment as early voting nears. Talarico had led in most polls throughout September and October, but the latest data suggests a stronger position for Paxton in the closing days.

Texas Governor’s Race Also Tight

The poll also examined the governor’s race, where Republican Gov. Greg Abbott holds a narrow lead over Democrat Gina Hinojosa, 48% to 44%, a margin within the poll’s error range. Six percent of voters remain undecided, and 1% indicated they will not vote. The closeness of both the Senate and governor races highlights the competitive political landscape in Texas heading into the midterms.

Recent Poll Trends in the Texas Senate Race

Recent polling data illustrates Talarico’s usual lead over Paxton throughout September and early October:

• YouGov poll (Oct. 6) — Talarico 50%, Paxton 44%
• Emerson College (Sept. 17) — Talarico 47%, Paxton 46%
• The New York Times (Oct. 3) — Talarico 51%, Paxton 45%
• Fox News (Oct. 1) — Talarico 51%, Paxton 49%
• Big Data Poll (Sept. 27) — Talarico 47%, Paxton 45%
• Marist Poll (Sept. 23) — Talarico 50%, Paxton 44%
• Texas Southern University (Sept. 22) — Talarico 47%, Paxton 46%
• ReconMR Texas Poll (Sept. 17) — Talarico 49%, Paxton 43%

These figures show that while Talarico has generally maintained a lead, the gap has narrowed considerably in the latest UMass Lowell/YouGov poll.

As early voting begins Oct. 19, both candidates will likely intensify efforts to sway undecided voters in this tightly contested race that could impact control of the U.S. Senate.