Early Voting Data Shows Growing Democratic Edge Ahead of 2026 Midterms

With Election Day just over a month away, early voting data from across the country indicates a rising Democratic advantage in turnout this fall. More than 700,000 Americans have already cast ballots in at least 30 states, and in several key battlegrounds, Democrats are requesting mail ballots or voting early at higher rates than at the same point in the 2026 midterm cycle. This emerging trend aligns with summer polling and primary results suggesting increased Democratic enthusiasm heading into the November 3 elections.

Democrats Lead Early Ballot Requests in Several Key States

States with important Senate and gubernatorial races this cycle are seeing a noticeable uptick in Democratic participation in early voting. In Iowa, for example, Democrats now account for 67% of ballot requests, compared to 54% at this point two years ago. Pennsylvania shows a similar pattern with Democrats making up 66% of requests, rising from 62% in 2024. Maine’s Democratic share has increased to 57% from 53%, while North Carolina’s State Board of Elections reports Democrats at 42%, up from 36% in 2024.

Although these numbers suggest a stronger Democratic turnout, it’s important to note that in most of these states—except Iowa—early voting was even more heavily Democratic in 2022. Moreover, these figures do not indicate actual votes cast but only ballot requests, which may not always translate directly into votes for Democrats.

Older Voters Continue to Dominate Early Voting

The demographic makeup of early voters continues to skew older, a trend that has intensified since the pandemic. Voters aged 65 and older now represent a growing share of mail-in and early voting participants. Data shows this age group made up 27% of mail voters in 2020, which grew to 31% in 2022 and 37% in 2024. Early indications for 2026 suggest this pattern is persisting, with seniors comprising a larger share of early ballot requests than in previous midterms.

This trend reflects the convenience mail voting offers to older citizens, many of whom may face mobility challenges. In states where an excuse is required to vote by mail, age often qualifies voters to request absentee ballots, reinforcing this demographic’s early voting dominance.

Virginia Highlights Strong Democratic Early Turnout

Virginia stands out as the state providing the clearest early voting picture, having reported large numbers of both mail and in-person early votes. Although Virginia does not register voters by party, turnout so far favors areas that supported Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024. Localities where Harris won by more than 20 percentage points have reached 78% of their 2024 early turnout, while Trump-supporting areas lag behind at 61%.

Further evidence of Democratic momentum comes from primary participation data in Virginia’s competitive House districts. In the 1st and 2nd Congressional Districts, Democratic primary voters outnumber Republican primary voters by 15 and 18 points respectively, a significant shift from the near parity seen at this stage in 2024. These districts, currently held by Republican Representatives Rob Wittman and Jen Kiggans, are viewed as key battlegrounds in this cycle.

Statewide, Democratic primary participation outpaces Republican by approximately 18 points, up substantially from an 8-point advantage two years ago.

Limitations and Caveats of Early Voting Data

While early voting figures provide valuable insight into voter enthusiasm and engagement, they have important limitations. Ballot request data does not guarantee votes for any party or candidate, as ballots may go unused or be cast differently than party registration suggests. Additionally, early voters tend to be older and less representative of the electorate’s full makeup, potentially skewing interpretation of partisan advantages.

Moreover, Republicans may be shifting toward voting methods that do not show up as prominently in early voting data, such as on Election Day or in-person voting closer to November 3. This dynamic leaves room for a tightening of the race in the final weeks of the campaign.

As the midterm elections approach, early voting trends are one piece of the puzzle pointing to increased Democratic enthusiasm in several key states, but turnout on Election Day will ultimately determine the balance of power in Congress and state governments.