Poll Shows Democrat Troy Jackson Narrowly Leading Susan Collins in Maine Senate Race
A recent poll finds Democrat Troy Jackson leading Republican Susan Collins by four points with less than a month until Maine’s Senate election.
Uploaded image
A new Washington Post-Schar School poll reveals Democrat Troy Jackson holds a narrow lead over Republican Sen. Susan Collins in the closely watched Maine Senate race, with less than a month remaining before Election Day. The poll, conducted from September 30 to October 5 among about 800 likely voters, shows Jackson at 50 percent support compared to Collins’s 46 percent, with the margin falling within the poll’s sampling error.
Poll Details and Candidate Backgrounds
The poll captures voter sentiment just before the candidates began their four-debate series this week. Incumbent Susan Collins, chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee, is seeking her sixth term and is currently the only Republican senator up for reelection in a state that voted for Kamala Harris in 2024. Jackson, a former Maine state Senate president, became the Democratic nominee after the party’s original choice, Graham Platner, withdrew in July amid a sexual assault allegation which he denied.
Key Issues Shaping the Race
Voters in Maine rank the cost of living as their most pressing concern, with the poll indicating that a majority find daily essentials unaffordable. Specifically, 63 percent say home energy and utility bills are unaffordable, 62 percent say the same of gasoline, and over half cite health care and groceries as likewise out of reach. On policy issues, voters favor Collins on her ability to bring federal funds to Maine by a 24-point margin and view her more favorably on bipartisanship.
However, Jackson leads on several other critical topics: abortion (by 16 points), reducing corruption (15 points), understanding Maine voters’ problems (11 points), cost of living (11 points), and health care (9 points). Abortion was a focal point in the recent debate, with Collins defending her vote to confirm Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh despite disagreeing with his abortion ruling, while criticizing Jackson for a prior antiabortion stance.
Challenges for Collins Amid Trump’s Unpopularity
Collins faces headwinds tied to President Donald Trump’s low approval rating in Maine. Only 36 percent of likely voters approve of President Trump, and 58 percent feel Collins has supported him too much in the Senate. Despite this, Collins has shown resilience in past races, often overcoming polling deficits late in the campaign. Political analyst Mark Rozell noted, “Collins has been remarkably resilient in the past, beating expectations and overcoming unfavorable polling to hold on to her seat,” but warned this year might be different due to a potential blue wave of anti-Trump and anti-GOP voting.
Voter Sentiment and Additional Factors
The poll also reflects a general lack of enthusiasm for both candidates, with 51 percent viewing Collins unfavorably compared to 43 percent who dislike Jackson. Collins remains significantly ahead of the Republican candidate for governor, Bobby Charles, who trails Democrat Hannah Pingree 36 percent to 49 percent. Additionally, 55 percent of likely voters favor a Democratic-controlled Senate, contrasting with Collins’s bid to portray Jackson as too liberal, especially on Medicare-for-all, a plan supported by a majority of voters.
As the campaign approaches its final weeks, the closely divided poll underscores the competitive nature of the race in Maine, where local issues and national political dynamics are both playing critical roles.
