Talarico Widens Lead Over Paxton in Texas Senate Race, New Poll Shows

A recent Texas Pulse poll released on September 17 reveals a growing advantage for Democrat James Talarico over Republican Ken Paxton in the race for U.S. Senate. Conducted between September 8 and 11, this poll signals shifting voter sentiment with just over six weeks remaining before the November 3 election.

Latest Poll Details Show Talarico Leading

The Texas Pulse poll, commissioned by ReconMR, surveyed 614 likely Texas voters and found Talarico leading Paxton 49% to 43%, a six-point margin that surpasses the poll’s 4.3% margin of error. This marks a notable increase from earlier polling data, suggesting that Talarico’s message is resonating more strongly across the state’s electorate.

In addition to the overall vote preference, the poll highlights a substantial shift among independent voters. Support for Talarico among independents surged from 53% in July to 64% in September, while Paxton’s backing in this group dropped from 30% to 24%. ReconMR Senior Research Analyst Lindsey Hendren noted that this swing among independents is a key driver of Talarico’s lead.

Favorability Ratings and Voter Perceptions

The poll also measured favorability ratings for both candidates. Paxton’s favorability has declined slightly, now standing at 38% favorable and 55% unfavorable, down from 40% favorable in July. Conversely, Talarico’s favorability improved to 50% favorable and 39% unfavorable, up from 46% favorable in July.

When asked who they believe will win the upcoming election, 48% of respondents predicted a Talarico victory, while 45% expect Paxton to prevail. This perception shift reflects the tightening race and growing confidence in Talarico’s campaign momentum.

Hendren pointed out that Paxton faces challenges even within his own party. While nearly all Democrats express support for Talarico, only about 90% of Republicans back Paxton, indicating some level of intra-party dissent.

Context: Other September Polls Show Similar Trends

This Texas Pulse poll joins a series of recent surveys charting the race’s movement. Polls conducted earlier in September have consistently shown Talarico holding a narrow but steady lead over Paxton:

• Emerson College (Sept. 17): Talarico 47%, Paxton 46%
• Mason-Dixon (Sept. 15): Talarico 46%, Paxton 43%
• SoCal Strategies (Sept. 13): Talarico 50%, Paxton 45%
• AARP (Sept. 10): Talarico 48%, Paxton 44%
• N+ Univision (Sept. 9): Talarico 48%, Paxton 43%

The accumulation of these polls suggests that Talarico’s lead is not an outlier but part of a broader trend as the campaign enters its final weeks.

Implications for the November 3 Election

With Election Day just over six weeks away, the widening gap presents a challenge for Paxton’s campaign to regain lost ground. The Republican incumbent and Texas Attorney General has faced legal scrutiny and criticism that may be influencing voter sentiment.

Talarico’s gains among independents and improving favorability ratings could prove decisive in a state that has historically leaned Republican but is experiencing demographic and political shifts.

As the race tightens, both campaigns are expected to ramp up efforts across Texas to mobilize voters and solidify support.

Overall, the latest Texas Pulse poll underscores the competitive nature of the 2026 Texas Senate race, highlighting growing momentum for Democrat James Talarico and the challenges facing Republican Ken Paxton as voters head to the polls this November.