Trump Approval Rating Hits New Low Days Before Midterms, Poll Shows
President Trump’s approval rating falls to 37%, the lowest in Emerson College polls, as midterms near with Democrats leading.
The White House/Wikimedia Commons
President Donald Trump’s approval rating has dropped to a new record low just days before the crucial midterm elections, according to the latest Emerson College poll released on Friday, Oct. 30. The survey found Trump’s approval at 37%, marking a two-point decrease from his previous lowest rating of 39% seen in multiple earlier polls.
Emerson Poll Details and Findings
The Emerson College poll conducted from Oct. 24 to Oct. 26 surveyed 1,000 likely voters and has a margin of error of 3 percentage points. It revealed that Trump’s 37% approval rating is the lowest he has received in Emerson’s polling history, dropping from 39% in September, July, June, and May surveys. This decline arrives as the midterm elections draw near on Tuesday, Nov. 3.
Democrats currently hold a 10-point lead over Republicans in a generic congressional ballot within the same poll. Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted, “With about 5% still undecided, most of whom are independent and half disapprove of Trump, Democrats’ congressional ceiling could be higher than the poll reports.”
Broader Polling Trends Reflect Trump’s Decline
Emerson’s poll is part of a wider trend showing President Trump’s approval slipping. As of Oct. 30, the RealClearPolitics average reported Trump’s approval at 38.4%, with a 59.7% disapproval rating. The New York Times polling average placed approval at 37% and disapproval at 60%. Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin average reflected 37.3% approval and 59.9% disapproval. These figures underline a notable slide in Trump’s popularity ahead of the midterms.
Midterm Election Outlook and Competitive Races
The upcoming midterms show Democrats gaining ground even in traditionally Republican strongholds. On Oct. 30, The Washington Post released a poll showing Democrat Adam Hamilton leading incumbent Republican Roger Marshall in the Kansas Senate race by nine percentage points. This is significant given that Trump won Kansas by more than 16 points in 2024.
In Texas, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton by six points in a CNN/SSRS poll. A Talarico win would mark the first statewide victory for a Texas Democrat since 1994, indicating shifting political dynamics in the state. These developments suggest the GOP faces challenges in maintaining control amid declining support for President Trump.
Implications for Republicans and the Midterms
The polling data paints a challenging picture for President Trump and the Republican Party as they approach the midterm elections. The combination of Trump’s record-low approval rating and Democratic leads in congressional and key statewide races signals potential losses for Republicans.
The undecided voters, many of whom disapprove of Trump, add uncertainty but could further tip the balance toward Democrats. With the elections only days away, the GOP’s path to retaining power appears increasingly difficult.
As voters head to the polls on Nov. 3, the latest polls will be closely watched for signs of whether this historic slide in Trump’s approval will translate into significant electoral setbacks for his party.
