Trump Immigration Crackdown Could Slash Social Security by $2,152 Annually
Trump’s immigration crackdown may cut Social Security benefits by $2,152 yearly, worsen food prices, and stall housing nationwide.
Michael Vadon/Flickr
The Trump administration’s intensified immigration enforcement is projected to cause significant economic fallout for Americans, including an average annual Social Security benefit cut of $2,152 by 2034 and beyond, according to a new report obtained by the Guardian. The policies have already triggered a mass exodus of 1.2 million foreign-born workers, driving up food prices, stalling construction, and shrinking the labor force across the country.
Social Security Benefits at Risk Amid Worker Exodus
The report, commissioned by America’s Voice and conducted by Economic Insights and Research Consulting, reveals that elderly Americans face an 8.6% reduction in retirement payments as a direct consequence of the Trump administration’s anti-immigration campaign if current policies persist. Unauthorized immigrants contribute significantly to the US Social Security fund through payroll taxes, totaling an estimated $26 billion, despite not being eligible for benefits themselves. The loss of these workers threatens the fund’s solvency and the retirement income of native-born Americans.
Rising Food Prices Linked to Immigration Enforcement
The agricultural sector, heavily reliant on immigrant labor, is grappling with a sudden depletion of its workforce. With 42% of crop workers undocumented and 68% foreign-born, farmers nationwide report that much or all of their workforce has vanished overnight, causing produce to rot in the fields and escalating food prices. The report highlights that prices for immigrant-labor-dependent foods have surged beyond average grocery inflation in the 19 months since President Trump took office in January 2025. Fresh whole milk prices rose by 5.7%, canned vegetables by 6.3%, and apples by 7.2%, reversing previous downward trends.
Construction Industry Suffers from Labor Shortages and Increased Costs
Immigrant workers constitute nearly a third of the construction workforce, and their absence has severely impacted housing development. The nationwide issuance of permits for single-family homes has dropped 10.6% since January 2025, with more pronounced declines in regions dependent on foreign-born labor. In 2026, the cost to build a new single-family home soared 10.9% compared to the first eight months of 2024, raising average project costs from $305,752 to $338,752. This shortage also indirectly affects native-born construction workers, who lose jobs when projects stall due to missing immigrant labor.
Broader Labor Market Shrinks and Job Growth Slows
By less than nine months into President Trump’s second term, native-born workers had lost between 51,000 and 297,000 jobs attributable to immigration policy changes. The overall labor force contracted by approximately 919,000 people over the first 18 months of the administration, while job growth slowed to roughly one-third of its pre-2025 pace. Industries such as healthcare, home health care, nursing homes, adult daycare, lawn care, landscaping, and groundskeeping—fields traditionally supported by immigrant labor—are also facing critical labor shortages and rising costs.
Michael Ettlinger, a report co-author, noted, “When the Trump administration says things, it’s not always data-driven. And we wanted to see what the data shows, and what other people have found the data shows. Turns out that refutes what the US president primarily is asserting.” Vanessa Cárdenas, executive director of America’s Voice, warned that the negative impacts on the economy and domestic job market are only beginning to be felt and will be long-lasting by design.
As the federal government continues its aggressive deportation campaign, the economic consequences threaten to deepen the nation’s affordability crisis, jeopardize retirement security for seniors, and undermine job opportunities for native-born Americans.
