Poll Shows Majority of Voters Blame Trump for Economy Ahead of Midterms

A recent NBC News poll reveals that a majority of voters believe President Donald Trump’s policies have harmed the U.S. economy, signaling potential challenges for Republicans as the 2026 midterm elections approach. With inflation and cost of living concerns lingering, the survey highlights voters’ growing dissatisfaction and the political implications ahead.

Trump’s Approval and Economic Impact

The poll, conducted by Public Opinion Strategies and Hart Research Associates, shows President Trump’s approval rating at 41% among registered voters—the lowest of his second term so far. More notably, 55% of respondents say Trump’s economic policies have hurt the economy, up from 48% earlier this year. Only 26% believe his policies have helped, while 18% see little difference.

These numbers mark a significant shift from the 2018 midterms, when more voters viewed Trump’s policies as beneficial to the economy. The rising cost of living, exacerbated by ongoing global conflicts such as the war in Iran, remains the top issue driving voter concerns.

Midterm Outlook: Democrats Hold Narrow Edge

The survey indicates the Democratic Party leads Republicans by five points in the race for control of Congress, 50% to 45%. This margin is smaller than the 12-point advantage Democrats held in 2018, when they capitalized on strong anti-Trump sentiment to win the House majority. Despite their polling lead, Democrats are still viewed more negatively than both Trump and the GOP, reflecting a complex political environment.

Republicans retain geographic advantages in key battleground states, especially in the Senate races, where Democrats face the difficult task of flipping several states Trump carried by double digits in 2024. Political geography remains a decisive factor, as noted by Republican pollster Bill McInturff, who said, “We have a classic battle between these numbers and the political geography in which this campaign will be decided.” 

Voter Concerns and Party Perceptions

Voters express more anxiety about unchecked Republican support for Trump than about Democratic obstructionism. Half of those surveyed worry Republicans might go too far backing the president if they maintain control of Congress, compared to 42% concerned about Democrats blocking Trump’s agenda. Independents lean even more heavily toward fearing excessive Republican support, 45% to 30%.

This dynamic underscores how Trump remains a polarizing figure who mobilizes opposition more than support. Nearly half of independents say their vote is a direct signal of opposition to Trump, a level not seen in three decades of NBC News midterm polling. Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt commented, “Donald Trump has achieved his goal of making this election about him at a historic level. The problem is that he’s made history in the highest share of voters opposing him.” 

Mixed Reactions to Trump’s Economic Policies

Republicans continue to promote Trump’s signature 2025 tax cut and spending legislation, dubbed the “big, beautiful bill,” but voter response is tepid. The poll finds 42% of voters are less likely to support candidates endorsing the measure, while only 36% are more likely. This split suggests the legislation has yet to provide a clear political boost.

Additionally, President Trump’s recent proposal to issue $5,000 payments to every adult if Republicans keep control of Congress has failed to gain significant traction. Only 21% of respondents say they would be more likely to support a candidate backing this plan, indicating limited enthusiasm for the incentive.

As the midterm elections approach, these polling trends paint a challenging picture for Republicans. While geographic advantages and party loyalty remain factors, voter unease with the economy and with Trump himself could influence the balance of power in Congress this November.