Texas Senate Race Tightens as Fox News Poll Shows Talarico Leading Paxton by 2 Points

A new Fox News poll released on October 1, 2026, reveals the Texas U.S. Senate race is closer than many anticipated, with Democrat James Talarico holding a slim two-point lead over Republican incumbent Ken Paxton. The survey of 1,203 likely voters, conducted from September 24 to 28, signals a tightening contest in a state long considered reliably Republican as voters head toward the November 3 election.

Poll Details and Key Findings

The Fox News poll surveyed likely Texas voters and shows Talarico with 51% support compared to Paxton’s 49%, indicating a competitive race that could have major implications for Senate control. Talarico holds a favorable rating with 52% of respondents viewing him positively, while Paxton’s favorability lags at 40%, with a majority of 58% expressing unfavorable opinions.

The poll highlights key demographic divides: Talarico commands strong support among Black voters (79%), Hispanic voters (64%), moderates (65%), and younger voters under 35 (62%). Conversely, Paxton’s support is concentrated among white evangelical Christians (74%), white men without a college degree (65%), rural voters (57%), and seniors aged 65 and older (55%).

Issue Priorities Shape Voter Preferences

Voters’ top concerns appear to influence their candidate preferences significantly. Among those who say the economy is their primary issue, Talarico leads by 19 points. He also holds an 18-point advantage among voters concerned about artificial intelligence and a narrower six-point edge among voters for whom President Donald Trump’s influence is central to their choice.

On immigration, a defining topic in Texas politics, Paxton enjoys a 20-point lead among voters who prioritize this issue, underscoring his appeal to conservative voters focused on border security and immigration enforcement.

Campaign Dynamics and Debate Challenge

As Election Day approaches, Talarico has publicly challenged Paxton to participate in a debate to address voters’ questions and contrast their platforms. To date, Paxton has not responded to the challenge, leaving voters and political observers awaiting further campaign developments.

This dynamic adds to growing intrigue in the race, which has seen Talarico steadily close the gap in recent polls, breaking historic patterns in Texas Senate contests.

Recent Polling Trends Confirm Tightening Race

The Fox News poll aligns with other recent surveys showing Talarico narrowing the race. September polls from various organizations showed Talarico leading or tied with Paxton by margins ranging from 1 to 7 points:

• Texas Southern University (Sept. 22): Talarico 47%, Paxton 46%
• ReconMR Texas Poll (Sept. 17): Talarico 49%, Paxton 43%
• Emerson College (Sept. 17): Talarico 47%, Paxton 46%
• Mason-Dixon Polling & Research (Sept. 15): Talarico 46%, Paxton 43%
• SoCal Strategies (Sept. 13): Talarico 50%, Paxton 45%
• AARP (Sept. 10): Talarico 48%, Paxton 44%
• N+ Univision (Sept. 9): Talarico 48%, Paxton 43%

These numbers suggest a consistently competitive race that could hinge on turnout and last-minute shifts in voter sentiment.

With less than a month remaining before the November 3 election, Texas voters face a closely contested choice that could influence the balance of power in the U.S. Senate.