Final Texas Polls Show James Talarico Leading Ken Paxton in Tight Senate Race

As Texans prepare to cast their ballots for the U.S. Senate seat, the latest polls indicate a narrow but consistent lead for Democratic candidate James Talarico over Republican incumbent Ken Paxton. The race, which could shift Texas’ long-standing political landscape, remains tightly contested with polls showing Talarico holding a slight advantage going into Election Day.

Closing Campaigns and Key Messages

On Monday evening, both candidates concluded their campaigns with contrasting tones. At a Tex-Mex restaurant in Collin County, Ken Paxton warned his supporters of what is at stake, saying, “Texas has never been this close to slipping away. If Texas falls, we don’t have another Texas to move to. Every poll shows that this is going to come down to the wire.” Meanwhile, James Talarico energized a crowd in Austin, declaring, “There’s that moment in every game, the last play of the last drive, when you have to leave it all on the field. Austin, we are in that moment.”

Latest Polling Data Points to a Tight Race

Recent polling results reveal a close contest, with most surveys giving Talarico a modest lead. An AtlasIntel poll of 1,678 respondents from October 28 to November 1 shows Talarico at 51.3 percent and Paxton at 45.4 percent, a 5.9-point advantage with a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level. Similarly, a New York Times/Siena College poll covering 1,215 likely voters from October 27 to November 1 places Talarico at 50 percent and Paxton at 43 percent, a 7-point lead exceeding twice its margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

Additional polls reflect a generally consistent but closer margin: Data for Progress found Talarico ahead 49 percent to 45 percent among 712 likely voters from October 23 to 26, though with a wider margin of error of plus or minus 6.4 points. Emerson College’s poll of 500 likely voters from October 31 to November 1 placed Talarico narrowly ahead 50 percent to 48 percent, while a CNN poll of 923 voters showed a 49 to 43 percent lead for Talarico with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 points. YouGov’s survey from October 26 to 29 also indicated a 51 to 47 percent lead for Talarico, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 points.

Outlier Polls and Overall Uncertainty

Despite most polls favoring Talarico, some show a different picture. Quantus Insights, surveying 1,221 likely voters from October 26 to 28, was the only late poll to put Paxton ahead with 48.7 percent versus Talarico’s 47.6 percent. Additionally, a Trafalgar Group survey conducted from October 31 to November 1 found the candidates tied at 48 percent each. When considered together, the polling landscape leans toward Talarico but with margins close enough to keep the race highly uncertain.

Other polling data includes YouGov’s four-point lead for Talarico, Texas Southern University’s two-point lead, and CNN/SSRS’s six-point lead, contrasted with Quantus Insights’ one-point lead for Paxton. These variations underline how slim Talarico’s advantage might be once margins of error are factored in.

Candidate Profiles and Campaign Platforms

James Talarico, 37, a former public-school teacher and current state representative from the Austin area, is running as an economic populist. His campaign includes proposals to repeal tax cuts for the wealthiest 1 percent, provide universal childcare, and cap credit card interest rates. Talarico also supports a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, health care reform, and institutional reforms such as congressional term limits and banning stock trading by members of Congress.

Ken Paxton, 63, the incumbent Texas attorney general and Republican nominee, has held his office since 2015. He defeated four-term Senator John Cornyn to secure the GOP nomination. Paxton is a strong supporter of President Donald Trump’s America First agenda, advocating for tax cuts, stricter immigration enforcement, and completing the border wall. He opposes abortion, backs gun rights, and calls for reductions in federal spending and regulation. His economic proposals include new tax deductions for housing, health care, and family expenses.

Implications for Senate Control

The outcome in Texas holds significant weight for control of the U.S. Senate. Republicans currently maintain a 53-47 majority, which includes two independents caucusing with Democrats. Democrats need to gain a net four seats to achieve a 51-seat majority, as Vice President JD Vance, a Republican, can break ties. Retaining all 13 Democratic seats on the ballot, including competitive races like Texas, is crucial for the party’s path to Senate control.

With Election Day underway, Texans face a pivotal choice that could reshape the political landscape. While polls favor James Talarico, the tight margins and varying poll results mean the final outcome remains uncertain.